According to a new poll
(as appearing on Brit Hume's Grapevine) a majority of Americans think that President Bush was too quick to use force in Iraq. However a majority of Americans also back preemptive force as a national security policy.
To me this suggests that the majority of Americans don't really know what they want regarding Iraq. Once you cut through all the spin, the facts are that Saddam Hussein was a dangerous, well armed man in an unstable region, whose very presence undermined the security of our nation. A man who possessed chemical and biological weapons, and had used them. A man who was working on nuclear weapons. And a man with deep associations with terrorists, including contacts with Al-Qaeda. Even if you are willing to quibble over the timeline, all those statements are true, and accepted by both sides, without partisanship. If there was a more clear cut example which required pre-emption, I'm not sure what it was. Anyone who will say Iran or North Korea doesn't understand the issues and the countries involved.
North Korea, even without nuclear weapons (which they probably have) has a million man army. The capital of South Korea is within standard artillery barrage range. Even without weapons of mass destruction, the North Koreans can put a hurting on the South, and us. For that reason containment is the right strategy. Also, the North Koreans are a risk-adverse dictatorship. They aren't going to cross that 38th parallel. It would be disastrous for them, and they know it.
(for anyone who'd like more detail about this, please email me for a free copy of my thesis which discusses this problem in a little more depth.)
In Iran you have a different situation. politically the country is divided between reformers and hardline conservative clerics. If you come down too heavily on Iran, you play into the hardliners hands. However if you are too lenient, then they are capable of causing alot of harm. (as witnessed by the arrest of Iranian intelligence agents casing NY landmarks for terrorist actions.)
I'll agree that there isn't a better target for the war on terror than Iran. But you have to choose your weapons very carefully or you will lose any chance of a internal change undermining the hard-liners.
In Iraq however, you have an isolated tyrant, decently armed, and with probable WMD, whose ignored all International Law, and which a coalition of countries has already went to war against to contain about ten years earlier. Your intelligence indicates (as does the intelligence of EVERY WESTERN NATION) that he has violated the terms for peace which ended the previous conflict. It should be a slam dunk. But it turns out that your so-called allies refuse to uphold the coalition which ended the original war (
with a little work I can probably post pictures of Exorcet missiles in Iraq that my brother took while he was there, proof that at least our French allies had no interest in upholding sanctions of any kind.)
The trick with Pre-emptive force is that you have to act against an enemy that cannot be persuaded by any means other than force (and with sanctions a joke in Iraq, it was pretty clear that was the case) yet before they are too powerful (which is why North Korea requires containment) Iraq was the text-book case for pre-emption, and I believe it worked.
That being said, let's talk about a little bit about why this confusion exists. In theory American's support pre-emption. why not in fact?
I think that it has largely to do with a concept that is best expressed by a retiring Nebraska Representative by the name of Doug Bereuter (R)
He recently said,
"Now we are immersed in a dangerous, costly mess, and there is no easy and quick way to end our responsibilities in Iraq without creating bigger future problems in the region."
Why Rep. Bereuter, must the solution be easy and quick? It is this kind of one-night stand foreign policy which has gotten American into the trouble she is currently in. The insurgents in Iraq are counting that if they can insure the road is anything but quick and easy we will walk away. Comments like this, from a RETIRING Representative I can simply not understand. It would make sense if he was running for re-election and so felt a need to pander to the anti-war left for a few votes. But since he's leaving his post we have to imagine he's speaking from the heart. How can we expect the populace in this country to stay the course in a tough, but ultimately worthwhile endeavor, when we have irresponsible politicians who apparently honestly uphold the "wham-bam thank you ma'am," school of foriegn affairs. We have made a real commitment to free Iraq from extremists. It is in their best interest, and ours as well. Going into this conflict we found that our allies were those who remembered what it was like to live under dictatorship, and who had recieved American assistance in reaching freedom. Countries like the Czech Republic and Poland came to Iraq with us. Perhaps ten or twenty years down the line, we will see Iraq joining us in coalitions. I'll take a tiny country that remembers what it's like to want freedom over a whole continent of wannabes.
As for America, We have to remember that if the cause is worthwhile, then it is worth more than a quick and easy temporary solution. If pre-emption as a theory is really going to work, then it has to be backed by steadfast determination.