How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Editors Note: I remember why I abandoned Blogger. this thing has now eaten the post 3 times... But I am not giving up.

Malkin has round up of Liveblogging of Nuclear Test

While the Surrender Press will continue to stress that North Korea does not have the Missile Technology to hit the United States, this is totally irrelevant because:

1. Defense Treaties with South Korea and Japan: If the North Koreans do use a nuclear weapon against either we will be forced to respond, otherwise we have abandoned our treaty obligations, which will encourage all of our allies to acquire nuclear weapons, since it will be clear that the US nuclear umbrella is meaningless.

2. Iran: Iran has better missile tech than the North Koreans, but they don't have the functioning bomb. Its highly likely that they will be willing to make some kind of trade here. It was reported that Iranian observers watched the North Korean missile test (which turned out to be a flop.) Even if the UN is successful at sanctions against North Korea (and there is little chance of that, with China likely to prevent any serious puntative action) the Iranians know a thing or two about Sanction Busting.

3. Terrorism and Arms Dealing: The North Koreans have extensive criminal network which deals in counterfeiting, drugs and weapons. They are very likely to have the ability to put the weapon up for bid on the black market. And the DPRK is depeserate for cold hard cash, so they may be willing to do it.

I believe, and I think most experts agree with me, that the North Korean regime is a risk-adverse dictatorship. What they want is to continue to oppress their people, and not be overthrown. At the same time, their raison d’être is the reunification of the Korean Penisula. They must walk that tight-rope between what they claim they want but know is impossible, and what they actually want but can not admit to, which is to remain in power for its own sake.

So this is Nuclear Blackmail. North Korea wants an end to sanctions, and aid, which they need to keep their regime a float. But it is ultimately like any hostage taking. At some point in time the hostage taker realizes he's never going to be given a gold plated rolls-royce, a suitcase with 20 million dollars and a plane waiting to take him to Cuba. The question is what does he do when he realizes that? I don't know the answer to that, but we better figure it out quick.